CNA Propaganda - Putin Under Pressure

 

With Putin under pressure, Belarus edges closer to joining war in Ukraine

With Putin under pressure, Belarus edges closer to joining war in Ukraine

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko chairs a meeting on security in Minsk, Belarus, on Oct 10, 2022. (Photo: Maxim Guchek/BelTA/Handout via REUTERS)

13 Oct 2022 03:24AM (Updated: 13 Oct 2022 03:28AM)

LONDON: A flurry of military activity in Belarus this week has caught the attention of Ukraine and the West as a potential sign that President Alexander Lukashenko may commit his army in support of Russia's flailing war effort in Ukraine.

Lukashenko has ordered troops to deploy with Russian forces near the Ukraine border, and his defence ministry says "combat readiness" drills are under way. On Tuesday, the interior ministry held exercises to eliminate "sabotage groups" near Yelsk, only 20km from the border with Ukraine.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has asked the Group of Seven (G7) countries to place an international observer mission near the border, while France warned Belarus it could face more Western sanctions if it deepened its involvement in Ukraine.

Belarus allowed itself to be used as a launchpad for Russia's Feb 24 invasion of Ukraine but has not joined the fighting directly. Analysts say Lukashenko would have no choice but to comply if Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded he enter the war, at a moment when Moscow is reeling from a series of defeats and facing unprecedented public criticism of its generals' failings.

But they are sceptical that Belarus's intervention would make much of a difference. Its armed forces total just 48,000 personnel, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and have not fought a war in more than 30 years of independence since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

"It's not exactly a combat-tested armed force," said Samir Puri, author of "Russia's Road to War with Ukraine".

He said, however, that the risk of intervention by Belarus could force Ukraine to beef up security in the north of the country, drawing forces away from the frontlines with Russia in the south and east.

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Zelenskyy's call for foreign observers is a sign that Ukraine takes the risk seriously but it may not be diplomatically feasible, Puri said. It's unclear who would provide such a force, as Moscow would veto any UN role and NATO or EU observers could be drawn into clashes with Russian forces.

The Belarusian defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. On Tuesday it said the deployment with Russian troops was a defensive measure "aimed at responding adequately to actions near our borders".

CLOSER TO NATO

Belarus shares borders with three NATO members, a factor that may also be part of Putin's calculations as he seeks to draw his ally into the war.

"It brings him much closer to NATO's borders. Putin can then say: 'I'm bringing the war to you. Do you really want it?' What happens if a missile goes astray?" a senior European official said.




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